Tight ore supply, off-season competition, and macro headwinds; SHFE tin under pressure in the afternoon session [SMM tin afternoon review]

As of the noon trading halt on August 1, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) was quoted at 264,940 yuan/mt, down 0.46% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low reached 262,910 yuan/mt, continuing the weak and oscillating trend from the night session. The three-month LME tin contract also moved lower, closing at $32,800/mt, a new low in nearly a month.

​​Hawkish stance from the US Fed:​​ The July meeting maintained interest rates unchanged, with Powell stating that "no decision has been made on an interest rate cut in September." Market expectations for an interest rate cut plunged from 68% to 45%, and the US dollar index rose to a three-month high, suppressing non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars.

​​Trade policy disruptions:​​ Starting from August 1, the US imposed "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries (refined tin was not included), triggering a rise in market risk aversion. LME industrial metals fell across the board, with LME copper hitting a two-month low, dragging down tin prices.

​​Low inventory vs. weak demand:​​ LME tin inventory is at historically low levels, theoretically posing a risk of a short squeeze. Coupled with a stronger US dollar, funds are withdrawing from industrial metals. LME tin has broken below the key support level of $33,000 on the technical front, and may test the 31,500-dollar range in the short term.

For the most-traded SHFE tin contract, the support level below is at 262,000 yuan/mt (corresponding to the domestic smelting cost line), and the resistance level above is at 267,000 yuan/mt (July high). The current market is in a tug-of-war between "tight ore supply reality" and "weak demand reality + macro headwinds," lacking a one-sided driver in the short term. It is recommended that investors pay attention to: